Use Intuition and Analysis for Personal Decisions: Why Society Needs Data-Driven Logic
In today's age of digital information, the line between intuition and data often blurs, leaving many grappling with the right approach to decision-making.
Since the early stages of life, the question, "What do you aspire to become when you grow up?" becomes common. This question is posed to you repeatedly from the moment you begin to speak. As a child, you are motivated to make decisions regarding your academic subjects, friendships, extracurricular activities, and aspirations for higher education, all with the ultimate aim of shaping your future career path.
As we grow older, we start to understand that our decisions are not a choice about what to do or what is right or wrong… But a decision about who we are. Furthermore, these decisions become intense with age as we must decide where to live, what political party to support, and what partner(s) to navigate life with, both in marriage or business, etc...
In most richer countries, making weak decisions in some aspects of one's life is not as bad as compared to poorer countries. Thus, most people proclaim that there is no right or wrong choice when all things are legally correct. For instance, globally, higher education gives one an edge in achieving social mobility - but one could still get by so finely without it in richer countries compared to poorer countries. This is also reflected in decisions like the right time to get married, become a mother, and so on...
But what about being in charge of making decisions that affect others? Because while no decision is right or wrong at a personal level, some decisions will be entirely bad when society is involved. This introduces the need for other parameters in the decision-making processes, like data-driven logic. However, in today's digital information age, the line between intuition and data often blurs, leaving many grappling with the right approach to decision-making.
Imagine Sarah, a young executive who always trusted her gut feelings regarding her personal choices, like selecting a new book or choosing a vacation destination. Yet, she leaned heavily on data analytics and empirical evidence to drive company strategies. One day, faced with a monumental personal decision that could also impact her community, she found herself torn. Should she follow her heart or let numbers pave the path? This dichotomy—between the personal and the societal, between emotion and logic—is one we all confront, especially in an era where every choice seems to carry heavier consequences.
This could be an indicator for individuals to move past what the right and wrong decisions should be - to try instead to understand how to develop personal decision-making processes the same way we build habits. One of the theories that cover this is the 'Triune Brain Theory', Pioneered by American physician and neuroscientist Paul D. Maclean, which is summed up in three words: head, heart, and gut.
Scientifically, it means that our reptilian brain comes first in decision-making. Followed by the limbic system. Then, lastly, evolution provided us with the neocortex. In layperson's explanation, the reptilian brain controls our primal instincts: feeding, breeding, and the 'flight or fight' reflex. The limbic system takes care of our emotions and memories. At the same time, the neocortex or rational brain is in charge of language, creativity, and abstract thinking.
Thus, the idea of ignoring intuition entirely and depending on data-driven logic because we have evolved from limbic thinking to a rational brain is like forcing humans to make decisions based on computer thinking while trying to make the computers use our primal limbic system to generate those thinking. An illustration could be likened to closing your eyes while using GPS maps because they show you the way.
Data have proven that several great thinkers and leaders in recent years depended on their intuition in decision-making but were still able to get it right. An example is Steve Jobs, the former CEO and co-founder of Apple and Pixar Animation Studios. In his 2005 inaugural speech at Stanford University, he admitted relying prevalently on his intuition from the onset to make personal career decisions. This led him to drop out of college and later develop disruptive innovations and hire people, which drove the company to success.
In a 2010 study, neurological expert Evans described intuition as an automatic and subconscious mechanism enabling individuals to make swift and effective decisions. This suggests that our intuitive judgments often operate beyond our conscious thinking (or rational processing), drawing from patterns and associations shaped through past experiences. Similarly, Dane and Pratt (2007) propose that intuition arises from subconsciously interpreting information stored in memory, typically derived from past learning and experiences.
Intuition offers a speedy and effective way to process data. Paired with logical analysis, it can aid decision-makers in forming more precise assessments and superior choices. However, intuition has limitations even when being used in personal-level decision-making. Similarly to the GPS map example, relying on instinct alone could illustrate a traveller in a different European city refusing to use GPS maps because they perceive they already know how European cities are.
Reliance on intuition could underlyingly result in biased and poor decision-making. It can be influenced by heuristics and cognitive biases or the availability of easily accessible and limited information that may not indicate the overall scenario.
In the early days of big data, far back in 2011, Erik Brynjolfsson, an economist, along with his team, released a study highlighting that businesses employing "data-driven decision-making" outperformed rivals that did not. Such discoveries triggered the surge in big data, which eventually evolved into today's AI-dominated period.
Nevertheless, Big data and AI fundamentally depend on the assumption that the future mirrors the past, and the problems we encounter remain consistent. Yet, this notion is increasingly outdated. Given the escalating complexities of our world – from rising inflation to post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, potential new disease outbreaks, and land conflicts in Europe – how relevant is the data from days gone by?
To this point, technology experts Cukier and Schonberger asked, what fund manager will estimate future returns based on the past ten years of stock market performance? Or what chief executive will base a sales forecast on 2021’s consumption data amid lockdowns?
Generally, to gain an advantage in decision-making, both at a personal level or for society, this is not achieved by analysing data but by harnessing the power of imagination. Therefore, instead of focusing on right or wrong or the decision-making with lesser consequences, individuals and society could benefit from making decisions that will tilt towards actualising an imagination.
However, there is a limitation. Imagination, in the words of Grayson Perry, ‘It is common to us all, but our ability to exercise it is linked to our basic material security and the opportunity to have the time, the freedom, and the means to live a full life.’ I refer to them as the ‘Key demands’ of ambitions. Lacking these conditions prevents us from reaching our full potential and leads to our alienation.
Photo by Engin Akyurt on Pexels
Many thanks for reading my perspective and giving feedback.
My fervent wish is for the personal growth of everyone and the success of all young professionals who put their hearts and souls into finding their purpose in life.
Copyright © Ekene Moses, 2023. All Rights Reserved.